gripeEl repunte de gripe porcina mantiene en alerta a México. Las autoridades sanitarias pronostican que unas 200.000 personas contraerían el virus A H1N1 en los próximos meses, lo cual podría saturar los hospitales del país.

De hecho, el Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) y el Ministerio de Salud reconocen que la capacidad del servicio médico de primer nivel está rebasada, sobre todo por el inusual aumento de enfermedades respiratorias asociadas a la gripe porcina.

Por el momento, la epidemia está bajo control, aunque se espera una transmisión intensa en las próximas semanas, le dijo a BBC Mundo Miguel Lezana, director del Centro Nacional de Vigilancia Epidemiológica.

«El virus está presente en todo el país, en algunos lugares con más intensidad que en otros. Es una epidemia extensa», aseguró.

Las autoridades sanitarias ya han confirmado 45.809 casos de gripe porcina, de los cuales han muerto 271.

Camas de hospital

El sistema público de salud mexicano cuenta con 80.000 camas de hospital para atender todas las enfermedades.

Las autoridades planean destinar sólo el 20%, unas 16.000, para atender a los enfermos de gripe porcina.

¿Serán suficientes si los pronósticos oficiales son de al menos 200.000 contagiados?

«Sí, porque no todos van a estar enfermos al mismo tiempo. En un escenario de emergencia, creemos que 20.000 necesitarán hospitalización», aseguró el director de Vigilancia Epidemiológica.

Además, la mayoría de los casos que se han presentado no han sido graves, y si se mantiene el ritmo de propagación de la epidemia, el sistema de salud podría atender a todos los contagiados.

«Siempre existe la posibilidad de que algo suceda, pero ya nos estamos preparando», aseguró Lezana.

Por lo pronto, el IMSS mantiene el alerta naranja en la mitad del país, es decir, considera a la epidemia en una etapa moderada de transmisión.

Además, el ministerio de Salud reconoce que los dos hospitales más grandes para atender enfermedades respiratorias del país están saturados. El resto de los sanatorios aún tienen espacio.

¿Y las vacunas?

Además de la saturación de hospitales, México afronta otro problema: a unas semanas que empiece el invierno, las vacunas contra la gripe porcina no han llegado.

Desde que se inició el repunte de la epidemia, el Ministerio de Salud pidió, sin éxito, que se adelantara la entrega de las dosis compradas a laboratorios internacionales.

En la negociación ha intervenido incluso el presidente Felipe Calderón, quien esta semana planea reunirse con directivos del laboratorio Sanofi Pasteur para garantizar el abasto de vacunas al país.

El primer lote de 10 millones de dosis es esperado en diciembre próximo, según informó el ministro Córdova. México tiene compromisos de compra por otros 20 millones de vacunas más.

Sin embargo, las autoridades han dicho que la inmunización no será para todos los mexicanos y, de hecho, las primeras dosis serán para personal médico y población en alto riesgo, como los enfermos de diabetes o mujeres embarazadas.

De acuerdo con Miguel Lezana, las vacunas son una parte de la prevención. «Lo más efectivo son las medidas de higiene para evitar el contagio».

Por lo pronto, desde hace dos semanas aumentaron en el país las medidas para contener el rebrote de la epidemia. La Iglesia Católica acortó la duración de las celebraciones religiosas, las escuelas tienen filtros sanitarios y en las oficinas públicas se distribuye gel sanitario a los visitantes.

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